Doug Ford’s explicit commitment at the Ontario Progressive Conservative convention in late January 2026 to seek a fourth mandate has anchored trader expectations that he will remain party leader through year-end. The PCs secured a third consecutive majority in the 2025 snap election and continue to hold a legislative majority, limiting internal pressure for change. Recent polling shows modest softening in PC support amid controversies over a proposed government jet and freedom-of-information reforms, yet no organized leadership challenge has emerged and Ford maintains active engagement in provincial and federal issues such as U.S. tariffs. With the next general election not due until 2029 or 2030, these factors sustain the market’s strong consensus that a leadership transition will not occur by December 31.