An ongoing regional Ebola outbreak driven by the Bundibugyo strain has produced roughly 4,700 confirmed cases and 2,200 deaths in the Democratic Republic of the Congo as of mid-August 2026, with limited spillover into Uganda that authorities declared over in late July. Traders assign a 96%+ probability against a pandemic because the virus spreads only through direct contact with bodily fluids, not airborne routes, and historical data confirm just 28 exported cases worldwide across five decades despite larger prior epidemics. International health agencies have designated the event a public health emergency of international concern, triggering coordinated containment that has kept transmission confined to eastern DRC provinces amid security and logistical challenges. Any shift would require unexpected sustained chains in urban centers or major travel hubs, developments that current surveillance and response metrics show no signs of producing before year-end.