Market-implied odds for the European Central Bank’s June 11, 2026 policy meeting heavily favor a 25 basis point deposit rate increase, reflecting trader consensus on the need to counter a sharp rise in Eurozone HICP inflation to 3.0 percent in April. Energy price spikes tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions have lifted short-term inflation readings while core measures show modest pass-through risks, prompting the ECB to hold rates at 2.00 percent on April 30 yet signal data-dependent tightening ahead. Recent economist surveys align closely with these probabilities, with roughly 85 percent now expecting the first of at least two quarter-point moves this year. Weak first-quarter GDP growth of just 0.1 percent and upcoming May inflation data remain key swing factors that could still shift sentiment before the meeting.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
25 bps Increase 84%
No change 14.8%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$275,340 Vol.
$275,340 Vol.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
15%
25 bps Increase
84%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps Increase 84%
No change 14.8%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$275,340 Vol.
$275,340 Vol.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$54,094 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$43,932 Vol.
<1%
No change
$52,050 Vol.
15%
25 bps Increase
$72,056 Vol.
84%
50+ bps increase
$53,209 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Market-implied odds for the European Central Bank’s June 11, 2026 policy meeting heavily favor a 25 basis point deposit rate increase, reflecting trader consensus on the need to counter a sharp rise in Eurozone HICP inflation to 3.0 percent in April. Energy price spikes tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions have lifted short-term inflation readings while core measures show modest pass-through risks, prompting the ECB to hold rates at 2.00 percent on April 30 yet signal data-dependent tightening ahead. Recent economist surveys align closely with these probabilities, with roughly 85 percent now expecting the first of at least two quarter-point moves this year. Weak first-quarter GDP growth of just 0.1 percent and upcoming May inflation data remain key swing factors that could still shift sentiment before the meeting.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$275,340Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 11, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Market-implied odds for the European Central Bank’s June 11, 2026 policy meeting heavily favor a 25 basis point deposit rate increase, reflecting trader consensus on the need to counter a sharp rise in Eurozone HICP inflation to 3.0 percent in April. Energy price spikes tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions have lifted short-term inflation readings while core measures show modest pass-through risks, prompting the ECB to hold rates at 2.00 percent on April 30 yet signal data-dependent tightening ahead. Recent economist surveys align closely with these probabilities, with roughly 85 percent now expecting the first of at least two quarter-point moves this year. Weak first-quarter GDP growth of just 0.1 percent and upcoming May inflation data remain key swing factors that could still shift sentiment before the meeting.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volume
$275,340Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 11, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds for the European Central Bank’s June 11, 2026 policy meeting heavily favor a 25 basis point deposit rate increase, reflecting trader consensus on the need to counter a sharp rise in Eurozone HICP inflation to 3.0 percent in April. Energy price spikes tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions have lifted short-term inflation readings while core measures show modest pass-through risks, prompting the ECB to hold rates at 2.00 percent on April 30 yet signal data-dependent tightening ahead. Recent economist surveys align closely with these probabilities, with roughly 85 percent now expecting the first of at least two quarter-point moves this year. Weak first-quarter GDP growth of just 0.1 percent and upcoming May inflation data remain key swing factors that could still shift sentiment before the meeting.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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