Elon Musk’s recent posting patterns on X position the 40-64 tweet range for August 13-15 as the clear market favorite at 48.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus around his baseline daily volume of roughly 13-21 posts. Recent days show moderate activity, with daily counts fluctuating between 10-41 amid ongoing Grok updates and routine platform commentary rather than major events like Starship launches or high-stakes product reveals that typically drive spikes. The secondary <40 bracket at 30.5% accounts for potential quieter stretches, while higher brackets trail sharply as historical three-day totals rarely sustain elevated output without specific catalysts. Traders weigh these cultural rhythms of engagement against the platform’s fast-moving news cycle, where last-minute developments could still shift momentum before the window closes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui40-64 49%
<40 31%
65-89 19%
90-114 4.3%
BARU
$21,467 Vol.
BARU
$21,467 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
<40
31%
40-64
49%
65-89
19%
90-114
4%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 49%
<40 31%
65-89 19%
90-114 4.3%
BARU
$21,467 Vol.
BARU
$21,467 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
<40
$2,077 Vol.
31%
40-64
$635 Vol.
49%
65-89
$872 Vol.
19%
90-114
$961 Vol.
4%
115-139
$1,516 Vol.
1%
140-164
$1,576 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$1,593 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$5,008 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$3,558 Vol.
<1%
240+
$3,671 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s recent posting patterns on X position the 40-64 tweet range for August 13-15 as the clear market favorite at 48.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus around his baseline daily volume of roughly 13-21 posts. Recent days show moderate activity, with daily counts fluctuating between 10-41 amid ongoing Grok updates and routine platform commentary rather than major events like Starship launches or high-stakes product reveals that typically drive spikes. The secondary <40 bracket at 30.5% accounts for potential quieter stretches, while higher brackets trail sharply as historical three-day totals rarely sustain elevated output without specific catalysts. Traders weigh these cultural rhythms of engagement against the platform’s fast-moving news cycle, where last-minute developments could still shift momentum before the window closes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$21,467Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s recent posting patterns on X position the 40-64 tweet range for August 13-15 as the clear market favorite at 48.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus around his baseline daily volume of roughly 13-21 posts. Recent days show moderate activity, with daily counts fluctuating between 10-41 amid ongoing Grok updates and routine platform commentary rather than major events like Starship launches or high-stakes product reveals that typically drive spikes. The secondary <40 bracket at 30.5% accounts for potential quieter stretches, while higher brackets trail sharply as historical three-day totals rarely sustain elevated output without specific catalysts. Traders weigh these cultural rhythms of engagement against the platform’s fast-moving news cycle, where last-minute developments could still shift momentum before the window closes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 13 12:00 PM ET to August 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$21,467Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 10, 2026, 12:07 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s recent posting patterns on X position the 40-64 tweet range for August 13-15 as the clear market favorite at 48.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus around his baseline daily volume of roughly 13-21 posts. Recent days show moderate activity, with daily counts fluctuating between 10-41 amid ongoing Grok updates and routine platform commentary rather than major events like Starship launches or high-stakes product reveals that typically drive spikes. The secondary <40 bracket at 30.5% accounts for potential quieter stretches, while higher brackets trail sharply as historical three-day totals rarely sustain elevated output without specific catalysts. Traders weigh these cultural rhythms of engagement against the platform’s fast-moving news cycle, where last-minute developments could still shift momentum before the window closes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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