Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet bracket at essentially 100% implied probability for Elon Musk’s X activity from August 24-26, 2026, because recent comparable three-day windows settled squarely inside that range amid routine commentary on Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, and platform metrics. Musk’s established cadence of 15-25 main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts per day during non-event periods produces totals in this band when no major product launches, political exchanges, or viral threads accelerate volume. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus around this baseline rather than any dramatic slowdown. An upset into higher brackets would require an unexpected high-profile announcement or sustained engagement spike before resolution at the close of August 26.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui40-64 100.0%
<40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$542,845 Vol.
$542,845 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
<40
No
40-64
Yes
65-89
No
90-114
No
115-139
No
140-164
No
165-189
No
190-214
No
215-239
No
240+
No
40-64 100.0%
<40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$542,845 Vol.
$542,845 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
<40
$61,562 Vol.
No
40-64
$167,510 Vol.
Yes
65-89
$87,195 Vol.
No
90-114
$93,515 Vol.
No
115-139
$54,515 Vol.
No
140-164
$47,742 Vol.
No
165-189
$11,081 Vol.
No
190-214
$11,238 Vol.
No
215-239
$2,876 Vol.
No
240+
$5,611 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 24 12:00 PM ET to August 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet bracket at essentially 100% implied probability for Elon Musk’s X activity from August 24-26, 2026, because recent comparable three-day windows settled squarely inside that range amid routine commentary on Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, and platform metrics. Musk’s established cadence of 15-25 main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts per day during non-event periods produces totals in this band when no major product launches, political exchanges, or viral threads accelerate volume. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus around this baseline rather than any dramatic slowdown. An upset into higher brackets would require an unexpected high-profile announcement or sustained engagement spike before resolution at the close of August 26.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 24 12:00 PM ET to August 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 22, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$542,845Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 26, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 22, 2026, 12:07 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 24 12:00 PM ET to August 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet bracket at essentially 100% implied probability for Elon Musk’s X activity from August 24-26, 2026, because recent comparable three-day windows settled squarely inside that range amid routine commentary on Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, and platform metrics. Musk’s established cadence of 15-25 main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts per day during non-event periods produces totals in this band when no major product launches, political exchanges, or viral threads accelerate volume. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus around this baseline rather than any dramatic slowdown. An upset into higher brackets would require an unexpected high-profile announcement or sustained engagement spike before resolution at the close of August 26.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 24 12:00 PM ET to August 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$542,845Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 26, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 22, 2026, 12:07 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Traders have priced the 40-64 tweet bracket at essentially 100% implied probability for Elon Musk’s X activity from August 24-26, 2026, because recent comparable three-day windows settled squarely inside that range amid routine commentary on Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, and platform metrics. Musk’s established cadence of 15-25 main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts per day during non-event periods produces totals in this band when no major product launches, political exchanges, or viral threads accelerate volume. The market reflects skin-in-the-game consensus around this baseline rather than any dramatic slowdown. An upset into higher brackets would require an unexpected high-profile announcement or sustained engagement spike before resolution at the close of August 26.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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