Israel’s naval enforcement of its Gaza blockade remains the dominant factor shaping trader assessments for this market. On April 29–30, Israeli forces intercepted and boarded over 20 vessels of the Global Sumud Flotilla in international waters near Crete, detaining roughly 175 activists and towing boats away, consistent with prior operations that prevented any approach to Gaza’s maritime zone. New departures of additional vessels from Turkey on May 13–14 have renewed the effort, yet historical patterns and the Israeli navy’s demonstrated capacity to act far from its coast indicate continued interception before territorial waters are reached. With the May 31 deadline approaching, the 64.5% “No” probability reflects consensus on sustained blockade effectiveness amid ongoing regional tensions.