Trader consensus implying a 97.3% probability of no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflects the contained May 2026 Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced roughly 13 cases and three deaths before quarantines ended with no sustained human-to-human chains or U.S. community spread. CDC and WHO assessments note that even the Andes strain—unique among hantaviruses for limited person-to-person transmission via close contact—requires prolonged exposure and lacks the airborne efficiency or reproductive number needed for epidemic growth. Historical U.S. surveillance shows only sporadic rodent-borne cases annually, with no evidence of accelerating zoonotic spillover or variant emergence through September 2026. Realistic shifts could stem from an undetected new strain with enhanced transmissibility or a major rodent population surge in endemic regions, though current official monitoring data indicate these remain low-probability events before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
3% peluang
$18,284,330 Vol.
$18,284,330 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% peluang
$18,284,330 Vol.
$18,284,330 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus implying a 97.3% probability of no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflects the contained May 2026 Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced roughly 13 cases and three deaths before quarantines ended with no sustained human-to-human chains or U.S. community spread. CDC and WHO assessments note that even the Andes strain—unique among hantaviruses for limited person-to-person transmission via close contact—requires prolonged exposure and lacks the airborne efficiency or reproductive number needed for epidemic growth. Historical U.S. surveillance shows only sporadic rodent-borne cases annually, with no evidence of accelerating zoonotic spillover or variant emergence through September 2026. Realistic shifts could stem from an undetected new strain with enhanced transmissibility or a major rodent population surge in endemic regions, though current official monitoring data indicate these remain low-probability events before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Volume
$18,284,330Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus implying a 97.3% probability of no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflects the contained May 2026 Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced roughly 13 cases and three deaths before quarantines ended with no sustained human-to-human chains or U.S. community spread. CDC and WHO assessments note that even the Andes strain—unique among hantaviruses for limited person-to-person transmission via close contact—requires prolonged exposure and lacks the airborne efficiency or reproductive number needed for epidemic growth. Historical U.S. surveillance shows only sporadic rodent-borne cases annually, with no evidence of accelerating zoonotic spillover or variant emergence through September 2026. Realistic shifts could stem from an undetected new strain with enhanced transmissibility or a major rodent population surge in endemic regions, though current official monitoring data indicate these remain low-probability events before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$18,284,330Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implying a 97.3% probability of no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflects the contained May 2026 Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced roughly 13 cases and three deaths before quarantines ended with no sustained human-to-human chains or U.S. community spread. CDC and WHO assessments note that even the Andes strain—unique among hantaviruses for limited person-to-person transmission via close contact—requires prolonged exposure and lacks the airborne efficiency or reproductive number needed for epidemic growth. Historical U.S. surveillance shows only sporadic rodent-borne cases annually, with no evidence of accelerating zoonotic spillover or variant emergence through September 2026. Realistic shifts could stem from an undetected new strain with enhanced transmissibility or a major rodent population surge in endemic regions, though current official monitoring data indicate these remain low-probability events before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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