Thai Meteorological Department forecasts indicate a high-pressure system interacting with the southwest monsoon will drive thunderstorms, gusty winds, and isolated heavy to very heavy rain across upper Thailand from October 4–7, with Bangkok and central areas most affected on October 5–6. This timing aligns with the market window and supports trader emphasis on the 50–100 mm range as the most likely single-day maximum, reflecting model consensus on convective activity without the sustained deluge seen in late September. Transition toward the dry season and variable steering patterns introduce uncertainty around extremes exceeding 100 mm or totals remaining below 50 mm. Updated TMD advisories and model runs through early October will provide key resolution signals for traders monitoring intensification potential and daily accumulation thresholds.