Recent short-range forecast models from agencies like Environment Canada show Toronto's October 4 overnight minimum likely settling near 8–11°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow, creating tight market splits between sub-6°C and 16°C+ outcomes. Primary drivers include variable radiative cooling under clear versus cloudy conditions, with high pressure and reduced northerly intrusions limiting sharp drops, alongside Great Lakes moderation. A super El Niño background supports above-normal seasonal temperatures, yet model consensus on exact low hinges on evolving wind and cloud details. Traders monitor fresh GFS and regional runs plus official updates through October 3 for resolution signals on this near-term temperature threshold.