Official National Weather Service observations at Austin Bergstrom International Airport recorded a daily maximum of 87°F on October 1, 2026, aligning precisely with the market-implied 86-87°F outcome at near-certainty. This value matched the 1991-2020 climatological normal high of 87.2°F and occurred amid morning peaks before widespread thunderstorms and heavy rainfall suppressed afternoon temperatures, with a minimum of 73°F and over an inch of precipitation. Forecaster consensus from NOAA models and real-time station data reinforced this narrow range, leaving little room for deviation. Only a post-event data revision or use of an alternate station could realistically alter resolution, though historical patterns show such adjustments are rare for this metric.