**Trader sentiment for Chengdu’s October 4 high temperature centers on model consensus for 24–26 °C amid autumnal transition conditions.** Multiple forecasts from sources including local meteorological updates and international models project a daytime maximum in this narrow band, driven by widespread cloud cover, light rain or drizzle, and modest southerly or westerly flow that limits daytime heating. Persistent moisture and reduced solar insolation favor the lower end of the range, while any afternoon clearing could push readings toward 26 °C. Historical October averages near 22–24 °C provide context, but current near-term guidance shows slightly elevated potential from regional warmth. Market-implied odds cluster tightly between 25 °C and 26 °C because ensemble spreads remain modest and key variables—cloud timing and precipitation intensity—have not yet diverged sharply in the latest runs. Updated model outputs and official Sichuan forecasts over the next 12–24 hours will likely resolve remaining uncertainty before resolution.