Recent forecasts from models including GFS and ECMWF indicate a mild early-October pattern for Helsinki driven by southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching Atlantic low-pressure system, with daytime highs expected near 13–15 °C and scattered showers on October 5. This positions the 13–15 °C market outcomes near 25–26 % as traders weigh model consensus against historical early-October averages of roughly 12 °C. The elevated 48.5 % implied probability on 18 °C or higher reflects uncertainty in how much warmer maritime air may advect northward before the front arrives, while the low 9 % on 8 °C or below aligns with limited cold-air intrusion risk. Updated model runs and official guidance from FMI over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities as steering patterns and cloud cover become clearer.