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icon for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?

icon for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?

Jul 13

Jul 14

Jul 15

Jul 13

Jul 14

Jul 15

30°C 42%

31°C 27%

29°C 21%

32°C 6.0%

Polymarket
BARU

30°C 42%

31°C 27%

29°C 21%

32°C 6.0%

Polymarket
BARU

24°C or below

$213 Vol.

<1%

25°C

$231 Vol.

<1%

26°C

$219 Vol.

<1%

27°C

$174 Vol.

1%

28°C

$262 Vol.

5%

29°C

$230 Vol.

21%

30°C

$339 Vol.

42%

31°C

$341 Vol.

27%

32°C

$455 Vol.

6%

33°C

$340 Vol.

2%

34°C or higher

$1,109 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for July 15 project a daily maximum range of 26–30°C amid high rain probability, driven by an approaching low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea that favors widespread cloud cover and showers. These conditions limit solar insolation and convective heating, keeping peaks near or below the 30°C threshold despite the seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal July temperatures. Model consensus and historical analogs for similar trough patterns support modest daytime highs, creating tight market-implied odds between 29°C and 30°C as traders weigh the balance between residual heat and precipitation suppression. Updated guidance from the Observatory on steering flow and rainfall timing will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,915
Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 15, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 13, 2026, 12:02 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for July 15 project a daily maximum range of 26–30°C amid high rain probability, driven by an approaching low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea that favors widespread cloud cover and showers. These conditions limit solar insolation and convective heating, keeping peaks near or below the 30°C threshold despite the seasonal outlook for normal-to-above-normal July temperatures. Model consensus and historical analogs for similar trough patterns support modest daytime highs, creating tight market-implied odds between 29°C and 30°C as traders weigh the balance between residual heat and precipitation suppression. Updated guidance from the Observatory on steering flow and rainfall timing will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,915
Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 15, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 13, 2026, 12:02 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 11 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "30°C" di 42%, diikuti oleh "31°C" di 27%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 42¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 42% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Jul 13, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?," jelajahi 11 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?" adalah "30°C" di 42%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 42% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "31°C" di 27%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 15?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.