**Clear skies and northerly flow are positioning San Francisco for a peak temperature near 82°F on October 15, aligning with the market’s leading 82-83°F bin at 39% implied probability.** National Weather Service guidance and multiple model runs forecast sunny conditions with light northeast winds shifting west, suppressing the marine layer and allowing strong daytime heating under high pressure. Hourly temperature profiles show a midday climb through the upper 70s to low 80s, consistent with October climatology when offshore flow produces above-average warmth. Minor model spread—some guidance reaching 84-86°F while others cap at 78-80°F—explains the secondary probability on adjacent bins, though real-time observations and updated NWS briefings remain the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader sentiment.