Sao Paulo's subtropical winter climate, with typical July highs near 21–24°C driven by reduced solar insolation and frequent cold fronts from the south, sets a baseline for the July 1 maximum. Recent model guidance points to a mild airmass with limited cloud cover and light winds allowing daytime warming to the mid-20s, elevating implied probabilities for 27°C or 28°C near 63% combined. Differentiating these hinges on precise boundary-layer heating, urban heat-island effects in the metropolitan area, and any last-minute adjustments to forecast soundings from agencies like INMET; a slightly stronger ridge or delayed frontal passage could push readings to 28°C, while modest cooling or increased moisture would favor 27°C. Traders weigh ensemble spread and historical analogs showing occasional 26–29°C outliers in early July against the short 24-hour window to resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 1?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 1?
27°C 40%
28°C 37%
26°C 19%
29°C 5%
BARU
BARU
Jul 1, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
4%
26°C
19%
27°C
40%
28°C
37%
29°C
5%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
1%
27°C 40%
28°C 37%
26°C 19%
29°C 5%
BARU
BARU
Jul 1, 2026
21°C or below
$230 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$139 Vol.
1%
23°C
$210 Vol.
1%
24°C
$122 Vol.
1%
25°C
$98 Vol.
4%
26°C
$507 Vol.
19%
27°C
$483 Vol.
40%
28°C
$305 Vol.
37%
29°C
$73 Vol.
5%
30°C
$141 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$273 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Sao Paulo's subtropical winter climate, with typical July highs near 21–24°C driven by reduced solar insolation and frequent cold fronts from the south, sets a baseline for the July 1 maximum. Recent model guidance points to a mild airmass with limited cloud cover and light winds allowing daytime warming to the mid-20s, elevating implied probabilities for 27°C or 28°C near 63% combined. Differentiating these hinges on precise boundary-layer heating, urban heat-island effects in the metropolitan area, and any last-minute adjustments to forecast soundings from agencies like INMET; a slightly stronger ridge or delayed frontal passage could push readings to 28°C, while modest cooling or increased moisture would favor 27°C. Traders weigh ensemble spread and historical analogs showing occasional 26–29°C outliers in early July against the short 24-hour window to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 29, 2026, 9:01 PM ET
Volume
$2,491Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 29, 2026, 9:01 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Sao Paulo's subtropical winter climate, with typical July highs near 21–24°C driven by reduced solar insolation and frequent cold fronts from the south, sets a baseline for the July 1 maximum. Recent model guidance points to a mild airmass with limited cloud cover and light winds allowing daytime warming to the mid-20s, elevating implied probabilities for 27°C or 28°C near 63% combined. Differentiating these hinges on precise boundary-layer heating, urban heat-island effects in the metropolitan area, and any last-minute adjustments to forecast soundings from agencies like INMET; a slightly stronger ridge or delayed frontal passage could push readings to 28°C, while modest cooling or increased moisture would favor 27°C. Traders weigh ensemble spread and historical analogs showing occasional 26–29°C outliers in early July against the short 24-hour window to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,491Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 29, 2026, 9:01 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Sao Paulo's subtropical winter climate, with typical July highs near 21–24°C driven by reduced solar insolation and frequent cold fronts from the south, sets a baseline for the July 1 maximum. Recent model guidance points to a mild airmass with limited cloud cover and light winds allowing daytime warming to the mid-20s, elevating implied probabilities for 27°C or 28°C near 63% combined. Differentiating these hinges on precise boundary-layer heating, urban heat-island effects in the metropolitan area, and any last-minute adjustments to forecast soundings from agencies like INMET; a slightly stronger ridge or delayed frontal passage could push readings to 28°C, while modest cooling or increased moisture would favor 27°C. Traders weigh ensemble spread and historical analogs showing occasional 26–29°C outliers in early July against the short 24-hour window to resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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