RBI projections anchor trader sentiment around India’s 2026 inflation path, with the central bank forecasting 4.6 percent average CPI for fiscal 2026-27 following its April 8 policy decision to hold the repo rate at 5.25 percent. Recent April 2026 CPI data printed at 3.48 percent, modestly above March’s 3.40 percent yet below consensus, while food-price pressures and base effects contributed to the uptick. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have lifted energy and commodity risks, prompting Goldman Sachs and other forecasters to revise 2026 estimates upward to 4.6 percent and narrowing scope for further monetary easing. These factors sustain the market-implied 82 percent probability for outcomes above 4.50 percent, with limited capital allocated to sub-3 percent ranges given the current momentum and external uncertainties ahead of the next RBI review.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui4.50%+ 82%
1.50% to 2.24% 9.7%
2.25% to 2.99% 7.2%
3.00% to 3.74% 7.1%
$60,622 Vol.
$60,622 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<0.75%
4%
0.75% to 1.49%
2%
1.50% to 2.24%
10%
2.25% to 2.99%
7%
3.00% to 3.74%
7%
3.75% to 4.49%
10%
4.50%+
82%
4.50%+ 82%
1.50% to 2.24% 9.7%
2.25% to 2.99% 7.2%
3.00% to 3.74% 7.1%
$60,622 Vol.
$60,622 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<0.75%
$806 Vol.
4%
0.75% to 1.49%
$525 Vol.
2%
1.50% to 2.24%
$415 Vol.
10%
2.25% to 2.99%
$23,764 Vol.
7%
3.00% to 3.74%
$517 Vol.
7%
3.75% to 4.49%
$23,340 Vol.
10%
4.50%+
$11,254 Vol.
82%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRBI projections anchor trader sentiment around India’s 2026 inflation path, with the central bank forecasting 4.6 percent average CPI for fiscal 2026-27 following its April 8 policy decision to hold the repo rate at 5.25 percent. Recent April 2026 CPI data printed at 3.48 percent, modestly above March’s 3.40 percent yet below consensus, while food-price pressures and base effects contributed to the uptick. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have lifted energy and commodity risks, prompting Goldman Sachs and other forecasters to revise 2026 estimates upward to 4.6 percent and narrowing scope for further monetary easing. These factors sustain the market-implied 82 percent probability for outcomes above 4.50 percent, with limited capital allocated to sub-3 percent ranges given the current momentum and external uncertainties ahead of the next RBI review.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$60,622Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 12, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRBI projections anchor trader sentiment around India’s 2026 inflation path, with the central bank forecasting 4.6 percent average CPI for fiscal 2026-27 following its April 8 policy decision to hold the repo rate at 5.25 percent. Recent April 2026 CPI data printed at 3.48 percent, modestly above March’s 3.40 percent yet below consensus, while food-price pressures and base effects contributed to the uptick. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have lifted energy and commodity risks, prompting Goldman Sachs and other forecasters to revise 2026 estimates upward to 4.6 percent and narrowing scope for further monetary easing. These factors sustain the market-implied 82 percent probability for outcomes above 4.50 percent, with limited capital allocated to sub-3 percent ranges given the current momentum and external uncertainties ahead of the next RBI review.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volume
$60,622Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 12, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...RBI projections anchor trader sentiment around India’s 2026 inflation path, with the central bank forecasting 4.6 percent average CPI for fiscal 2026-27 following its April 8 policy decision to hold the repo rate at 5.25 percent. Recent April 2026 CPI data printed at 3.48 percent, modestly above March’s 3.40 percent yet below consensus, while food-price pressures and base effects contributed to the uptick. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have lifted energy and commodity risks, prompting Goldman Sachs and other forecasters to revise 2026 estimates upward to 4.6 percent and narrowing scope for further monetary easing. These factors sustain the market-implied 82 percent probability for outcomes above 4.50 percent, with limited capital allocated to sub-3 percent ranges given the current momentum and external uncertainties ahead of the next RBI review.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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