Narendra Modi’s continued tenure as prime minister through the end of 2026 rests on the NDA coalition’s parliamentary majority and recent bypoll successes in Assam, West Bengal, and Puducherry that reinforced BJP-NDA support. The next general election remains scheduled for 2029, and no scheduled votes, no-confidence motions, or constitutional triggers exist in the narrow window to December 31. Recent youth-led protests over voter-roll revisions and the Chief Election Commissioner have prompted opposition marches and detentions, yet these developments have not eroded the government’s floor strength or prompted coalition partners to withdraw. Traders therefore assign only a 5 percent chance of removal, viewing sudden health events, an unforeseen internal revolt, or a rapid collapse of alliance arithmetic as the few remaining low-probability paths that could still alter the outcome before year-end.