Narendra Modi continues to command a parliamentary majority through the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, with no scheduled national election or constitutional process that could force his removal before the end of 2026. Recent youth-led protests over voter-roll revisions and the Chief Election Commissioner have prompted opposition actions and localized crackdowns, yet these have not triggered defections, a successful no-confidence motion, or widespread coalition fractures capable of toppling the government in the remaining weeks. Traders assign a 95.2% probability to the “No” outcome, reflecting the absence of near-term institutional levers or verified developments that would alter the current balance of power. Late-breaking health events, sudden coalition shifts, or unforeseen legal rulings remain the primary low-probability variables that could still influence resolution.