El Niño development in the tropical Pacific stands as the dominant near-term driver of June 2026 global temperature expectations, with official forecasts from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and the WMO assigning an 80–98% probability of El Niño conditions emerging during May–July. This transition from neutral conditions is expected to reinforce above-average sea-surface temperatures and push monthly anomalies higher than the 2025 baseline, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around the 1.10–1.19 °C range. Model spread in onset timing and initial strength creates the narrow gap between the two leading bins, while historical analogs and current ocean heat content limit the chance of outcomes below 1.10 °C or above 1.25 °C. The next ENSO diagnostic update, scheduled for June 11, and the June global temperature release will provide fresh observational constraints.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 37%
1.15–1.19ºC 21%
<1.10ºC 16%
1.20–1.24ºC 14%
BARU
BARU
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
16%
1.10–1.14ºC
37%
1.15–1.19ºC
33%
1.20–1.24ºC
14%
1.25–1.29ºC
9%
>1.29ºC
3%
1.10–1.14ºC 37%
1.15–1.19ºC 21%
<1.10ºC 16%
1.20–1.24ºC 14%
BARU
BARU
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
$70 Vol.
16%
1.10–1.14ºC
$77 Vol.
37%
1.15–1.19ºC
$56 Vol.
33%
1.20–1.24ºC
$1,027 Vol.
14%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,030 Vol.
9%
>1.29ºC
$529 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño development in the tropical Pacific stands as the dominant near-term driver of June 2026 global temperature expectations, with official forecasts from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and the WMO assigning an 80–98% probability of El Niño conditions emerging during May–July. This transition from neutral conditions is expected to reinforce above-average sea-surface temperatures and push monthly anomalies higher than the 2025 baseline, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around the 1.10–1.19 °C range. Model spread in onset timing and initial strength creates the narrow gap between the two leading bins, while historical analogs and current ocean heat content limit the chance of outcomes below 1.10 °C or above 1.25 °C. The next ENSO diagnostic update, scheduled for June 11, and the June global temperature release will provide fresh observational constraints.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$2,789Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño development in the tropical Pacific stands as the dominant near-term driver of June 2026 global temperature expectations, with official forecasts from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and the WMO assigning an 80–98% probability of El Niño conditions emerging during May–July. This transition from neutral conditions is expected to reinforce above-average sea-surface temperatures and push monthly anomalies higher than the 2025 baseline, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around the 1.10–1.19 °C range. Model spread in onset timing and initial strength creates the narrow gap between the two leading bins, while historical analogs and current ocean heat content limit the chance of outcomes below 1.10 °C or above 1.25 °C. The next ENSO diagnostic update, scheduled for June 11, and the June global temperature release will provide fresh observational constraints.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$2,789Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...El Niño development in the tropical Pacific stands as the dominant near-term driver of June 2026 global temperature expectations, with official forecasts from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and the WMO assigning an 80–98% probability of El Niño conditions emerging during May–July. This transition from neutral conditions is expected to reinforce above-average sea-surface temperatures and push monthly anomalies higher than the 2025 baseline, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around the 1.10–1.19 °C range. Model spread in onset timing and initial strength creates the narrow gap between the two leading bins, while historical analogs and current ocean heat content limit the chance of outcomes below 1.10 °C or above 1.25 °C. The next ENSO diagnostic update, scheduled for June 11, and the June global temperature release will provide fresh observational constraints.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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