Traders assign nearly equal probabilities around 1.10–1.24 °C for the July 2026 global temperature anomaly, reflecting genuine uncertainty in the ENSO transition and its modulation of Northern Hemisphere summer warmth. Current NOAA and ECMWF model ensembles show mixed Pacific sea-surface temperature signals, with a possible weak La Niña emerging that would dampen warming relative to recent El Niño peaks while ongoing greenhouse-gas forcing elevates the baseline. Arctic sea-ice extent, North Atlantic Oscillation variability, and aerosol loading introduce additional spread; historical analogs indicate July anomalies typically shift 0.1–0.2 °C with ENSO phase changes. Fresh June observational releases and updated seasonal forecasts will likely clarify resolution thresholds before month-end data finalize the outcome.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiJuly 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 47%
1.20–1.24ºC 45%
1.15–1.19ºC 43%
<1.10ºC 42%
BARU
BARU
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
42%
1.10–1.14ºC
47%
1.15–1.19ºC
43%
1.20–1.24ºC
45%
1.25–1.29ºC
42%
>1.29ºC
42%
1.10–1.14ºC 47%
1.20–1.24ºC 45%
1.15–1.19ºC 43%
<1.10ºC 42%
BARU
BARU
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
$83 Vol.
42%
1.10–1.14ºC
$63 Vol.
47%
1.15–1.19ºC
$47 Vol.
43%
1.20–1.24ºC
$45 Vol.
45%
1.25–1.29ºC
$84 Vol.
42%
>1.29ºC
$54 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Traders assign nearly equal probabilities around 1.10–1.24 °C for the July 2026 global temperature anomaly, reflecting genuine uncertainty in the ENSO transition and its modulation of Northern Hemisphere summer warmth. Current NOAA and ECMWF model ensembles show mixed Pacific sea-surface temperature signals, with a possible weak La Niña emerging that would dampen warming relative to recent El Niño peaks while ongoing greenhouse-gas forcing elevates the baseline. Arctic sea-ice extent, North Atlantic Oscillation variability, and aerosol loading introduce additional spread; historical analogs indicate July anomalies typically shift 0.1–0.2 °C with ENSO phase changes. Fresh June observational releases and updated seasonal forecasts will likely clarify resolution thresholds before month-end data finalize the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$377Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Traders assign nearly equal probabilities around 1.10–1.24 °C for the July 2026 global temperature anomaly, reflecting genuine uncertainty in the ENSO transition and its modulation of Northern Hemisphere summer warmth. Current NOAA and ECMWF model ensembles show mixed Pacific sea-surface temperature signals, with a possible weak La Niña emerging that would dampen warming relative to recent El Niño peaks while ongoing greenhouse-gas forcing elevates the baseline. Arctic sea-ice extent, North Atlantic Oscillation variability, and aerosol loading introduce additional spread; historical analogs indicate July anomalies typically shift 0.1–0.2 °C with ENSO phase changes. Fresh June observational releases and updated seasonal forecasts will likely clarify resolution thresholds before month-end data finalize the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$377Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign nearly equal probabilities around 1.10–1.24 °C for the July 2026 global temperature anomaly, reflecting genuine uncertainty in the ENSO transition and its modulation of Northern Hemisphere summer warmth. Current NOAA and ECMWF model ensembles show mixed Pacific sea-surface temperature signals, with a possible weak La Niña emerging that would dampen warming relative to recent El Niño peaks while ongoing greenhouse-gas forcing elevates the baseline. Arctic sea-ice extent, North Atlantic Oscillation variability, and aerosol loading introduce additional spread; historical analogs indicate July anomalies typically shift 0.1–0.2 °C with ENSO phase changes. Fresh June observational releases and updated seasonal forecasts will likely clarify resolution thresholds before month-end data finalize the outcome.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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