Incumbent Republican William Timmons secured the SC-04 nomination after defeating primary challengers with roughly two-thirds of the vote in June 2026, while Democrat Courtney McClain advanced as her party's nominee for the November 3 general election. The Upstate South Carolina district, encompassing Greenville and Spartanburg, maintains a consistent Republican lean reflected in prior election margins exceeding 20 points and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solidly Republican. This positioning aligns with trader consensus assigning the Republican Party a 92.5% implied probability, driven by the incumbent's established record, limited Democratic infrastructure, and absence of recent polling or developments indicating a competitive contest. Factors that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen national political shift, late-cycle scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout, though such outcomes remain low-probability given structural fundamentals.
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SC-04 House Election Winner
$38,882 Vol.
$38,882 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
8%
$38,882 Vol.
$38,882 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$18,170 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$20,712 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican William Timmons secured the SC-04 nomination after defeating primary challengers with roughly two-thirds of the vote in June 2026, while Democrat Courtney McClain advanced as her party's nominee for the November 3 general election. The Upstate South Carolina district, encompassing Greenville and Spartanburg, maintains a consistent Republican lean reflected in prior election margins exceeding 20 points and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solidly Republican. This positioning aligns with trader consensus assigning the Republican Party a 92.5% implied probability, driven by the incumbent's established record, limited Democratic infrastructure, and absence of recent polling or developments indicating a competitive contest. Factors that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen national political shift, late-cycle scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout, though such outcomes remain low-probability given structural fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$38,882Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican William Timmons secured the SC-04 nomination after defeating primary challengers with roughly two-thirds of the vote in June 2026, while Democrat Courtney McClain advanced as her party's nominee for the November 3 general election. The Upstate South Carolina district, encompassing Greenville and Spartanburg, maintains a consistent Republican lean reflected in prior election margins exceeding 20 points and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solidly Republican. This positioning aligns with trader consensus assigning the Republican Party a 92.5% implied probability, driven by the incumbent's established record, limited Democratic infrastructure, and absence of recent polling or developments indicating a competitive contest. Factors that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen national political shift, late-cycle scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout, though such outcomes remain low-probability given structural fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$38,882Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican William Timmons secured the SC-04 nomination after defeating primary challengers with roughly two-thirds of the vote in June 2026, while Democrat Courtney McClain advanced as her party's nominee for the November 3 general election. The Upstate South Carolina district, encompassing Greenville and Spartanburg, maintains a consistent Republican lean reflected in prior election margins exceeding 20 points and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solidly Republican. This positioning aligns with trader consensus assigning the Republican Party a 92.5% implied probability, driven by the incumbent's established record, limited Democratic infrastructure, and absence of recent polling or developments indicating a competitive contest. Factors that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen national political shift, late-cycle scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout, though such outcomes remain low-probability given structural fundamentals.
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