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icon for Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
Politik·Taiwan

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

icon for Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
Politik·Taiwan

Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?

5% peluang
Polymarket

$69,462 Vol.

5% peluang
Polymarket

$69,462 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lai Ching-te assumed Taiwan’s presidency in May 2024 following his 2024 election victory and serves a fixed four-year term extending into 2028. As of mid-2026 he remains in office and continues to conduct official duties, including public addresses on cross-strait stability and participation in international forums. An opposition-led impeachment motion advanced through the Legislative Yuan in late 2025 but failed to reach the required two-thirds supermajority when put to a final vote in May 2026. No verified developments involving resignation, health-related incapacity, or other removal mechanisms have occurred. The high trader probability on “No” aligns with these institutional safeguards, the absence of successful legislative or other formal challenges to date, and the structural timeline that places the next scheduled presidential election after the market’s December 2026 resolution date.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$69,462
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 7, 2026, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lai Ching-te assumed Taiwan’s presidency in May 2024 following his 2024 election victory and serves a fixed four-year term extending into 2028. As of mid-2026 he remains in office and continues to conduct official duties, including public addresses on cross-strait stability and participation in international forums. An opposition-led impeachment motion advanced through the Legislative Yuan in late 2025 but failed to reach the required two-thirds supermajority when put to a final vote in May 2026. No verified developments involving resignation, health-related incapacity, or other removal mechanisms have occurred. The high trader probability on “No” aligns with these institutional safeguards, the absence of successful legislative or other formal challenges to date, and the structural timeline that places the next scheduled presidential election after the market’s December 2026 resolution date.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$69,462
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 7, 2026, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 5% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 5¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 5% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?" telah menghasilkan $69.5K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jan 7, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?" adalah 5% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 5% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.