Forecast uncertainty between a 12°C low and potentially much cooler readings drives the near-even split in market-implied odds for Ankara on September 29. Official guidance from Turkish meteorological sources and several models project a minimum near 12–13°C under persistent cloud cover, light northerly winds, and intermittent showers that limit overnight radiative cooling. Ensemble spreads arise from timing differences in precipitation and variable high-level moisture, which could allow clearer intervals and greater temperature drops toward 7°C or below in some runs. Late-September climatology typically features lows around 14°C, but the current pattern of below-normal temperatures and moist air increases sensitivity to these factors. Fresh model updates and morning observations will clarify the outcome.