Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to overnight lows near 75°F in Miami on October 7 amid southerly flow, high humidity, and widespread thunderstorm activity that limits radiational cooling. These conditions align with the cluster of market-implied probabilities around the mid-70s to low-80s, reflecting typical early-October maritime tropical air masses. The elevated weighting on 69°F or below captures residual forecast uncertainty, including potential model divergence on cloud cover, wind shifts, or any weak frontal passage that could enhance nocturnal temperature drops below climatological norms of the upper 70s. Updated NHC and local office briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these variables ahead of market resolution.