Recent National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts indicate San Francisco’s overnight low on October 4–5 will likely settle in the upper 50s to low 60s Fahrenheit under clear to mostly clear skies and light west-southwest winds, consistent with a broad high-pressure ridge maintaining above-normal temperatures. This places the expected daily minimum squarely in the 58–62 °F range, aligning with historical October averages near 55 °F while reflecting the current warm anomaly that has kept coastal marine-layer influence suppressed. Model consensus shows low spread for this short-range period, though minor shifts in onshore flow or timing of any late-day cooling could nudge the reading a degree or two. The 5 % market-implied probability for 55 °F or below captures the tail risk of stronger marine intrusion, while elevated odds on 74 °F+ appear driven by uncertainty over whether the absolute minimum occurs during the preceding night or daytime hours. Updated NWS and NOAA model runs over the next 24–48 hours will provide the final resolution inputs.