Recent forecasts from sources like GFS and regional models indicate a likely overnight low near 21–23°C for Tel Aviv on October 13, driven by moderate radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds that limit mixing. Higher humidity and dew points around 17–19°C could moderate the minimum, while clearer intervals or stronger sea breezes from the Mediterranean might enhance cooling toward the lower end of the range. Historical climatology places the typical October low near 20–21°C, but current atmospheric patterns show modest uncertainty from variable cloud cover and pressure gradients. New model runs and observational updates in the next 48 hours will refine the exact threshold, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across 19–27°C outcomes.