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icon for Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?
Politik·Budaya

Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?

icon for Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?
Politik·Budaya

Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?

9% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
9% peluang
Polymarket
BARU
This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**The federal guilty plea on August 14, 2026, and resulting double-jeopardy motion have become the dominant force holding the “No” outcome at 86.1% implied probability.** After admitting to the stalking charges that led to Brian Thompson’s death, Luigi Mangione’s federal sentencing is now set for December 18, 2026, while the state murder trial—originally slated for September 8—has been postponed indefinitely. A December 10 hearing will decide whether New York’s double-jeopardy rules bar the state case entirely. With jury selection in the federal matter reset for January 2027 and no firm trial date locked in before year-end, traders see little chance of an actual trial commencing in 2026. Ongoing procedural wrangling and the possibility of dismissal or further continuances reinforce the market’s strong consensus that resolution will slip past the 2027 threshold.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,095
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Dec 17, 2025, 4:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**The federal guilty plea on August 14, 2026, and resulting double-jeopardy motion have become the dominant force holding the “No” outcome at 86.1% implied probability.** After admitting to the stalking charges that led to Brian Thompson’s death, Luigi Mangione’s federal sentencing is now set for December 18, 2026, while the state murder trial—originally slated for September 8—has been postponed indefinitely. A December 10 hearing will decide whether New York’s double-jeopardy rules bar the state case entirely. With jury selection in the federal matter reset for January 2027 and no firm trial date locked in before year-end, traders see little chance of an actual trial commencing in 2026. Ongoing procedural wrangling and the possibility of dismissal or further continuances reinforce the market’s strong consensus that resolution will slip past the 2027 threshold.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,095
Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Dec 17, 2025, 4:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 13% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 13¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 13% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Dec 17, 2025. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?" adalah 13% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 13% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.