The Michigan 12th congressional district race remains tightly contested in trader pricing due to its urban and suburban composition across Wayne and Oakland counties, where incumbent Democrat Rashida Tlaib secured renomination in the August 4 primary with roughly 74 percent of the vote against challengers. Republican nominee James Hooper, who previously ran in 2024, anchors the opposition in a seat with a strong Democratic baseline but variable turnout patterns that can compress or expand final margins. Limited polling and the absence of major late-cycle catalysts such as high-profile endorsements, debate performances, or national economic shifts have left multiple margin outcomes—including Democrat victories in the 35-65 percent range and a Republican win—clustered near similar implied probabilities. Scheduled general-election developments through November, including voter mobilization efforts and any shifts in local economic conditions, could widen separation among these outcomes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMI-12 House Election Margin of Victory
MI-12 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 60-65% 37%
Democrat 50-55% 37%
Democrat 0-25% 37%
Democrat 65%+ 36%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 65%+
36%
Democrat 60-65%
37%
Democrat 55-60%
36%
Democrat 50-55%
37%
Democrat 45-50%
36%
Democrat 40-45%
36%
Democrat 35-40%
36%
Democrat 25-35%
36%
Democrat 0-25%
37%
Republican Wins
36%
Democrat 60-65% 37%
Democrat 50-55% 37%
Democrat 0-25% 37%
Democrat 65%+ 36%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 65%+
$0 Vol.
36%
Democrat 60-65%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 55-60%
$0 Vol.
36%
Democrat 50-55%
$0 Vol.
37%
Democrat 45-50%
$0 Vol.
36%
Democrat 40-45%
$0 Vol.
36%
Democrat 35-40%
$0 Vol.
36%
Democrat 25-35%
$0 Vol.
36%
Democrat 0-25%
$0 Vol.
37%
Republican Wins
$0 Vol.
36%
The 2026 MI-12 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MI-12 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Michigan 12th congressional district race remains tightly contested in trader pricing due to its urban and suburban composition across Wayne and Oakland counties, where incumbent Democrat Rashida Tlaib secured renomination in the August 4 primary with roughly 74 percent of the vote against challengers. Republican nominee James Hooper, who previously ran in 2024, anchors the opposition in a seat with a strong Democratic baseline but variable turnout patterns that can compress or expand final margins. Limited polling and the absence of major late-cycle catalysts such as high-profile endorsements, debate performances, or national economic shifts have left multiple margin outcomes—including Democrat victories in the 35-65 percent range and a Republican win—clustered near similar implied probabilities. Scheduled general-election developments through November, including voter mobilization efforts and any shifts in local economic conditions, could widen separation among these outcomes.
The 2026 MI-12 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MI-12 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MI-12 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 MI-12 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MI-12 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Michigan 12th congressional district race remains tightly contested in trader pricing due to its urban and suburban composition across Wayne and Oakland counties, where incumbent Democrat Rashida Tlaib secured renomination in the August 4 primary with roughly 74 percent of the vote against challengers. Republican nominee James Hooper, who previously ran in 2024, anchors the opposition in a seat with a strong Democratic baseline but variable turnout patterns that can compress or expand final margins. Limited polling and the absence of major late-cycle catalysts such as high-profile endorsements, debate performances, or national economic shifts have left multiple margin outcomes—including Democrat victories in the 35-65 percent range and a Republican win—clustered near similar implied probabilities. Scheduled general-election developments through November, including voter mobilization efforts and any shifts in local economic conditions, could widen separation among these outcomes.
The 2026 MI-12 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MI-12 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MI-12 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Michigan 12th congressional district race remains tightly contested in trader pricing due to its urban and suburban composition across Wayne and Oakland counties, where incumbent Democrat Rashida Tlaib secured renomination in the August 4 primary with roughly 74 percent of the vote against challengers. Republican nominee James Hooper, who previously ran in 2024, anchors the opposition in a seat with a strong Democratic baseline but variable turnout patterns that can compress or expand final margins. Limited polling and the absence of major late-cycle catalysts such as high-profile endorsements, debate performances, or national economic shifts have left multiple margin outcomes—including Democrat victories in the 35-65 percent range and a Republican win—clustered near similar implied probabilities. Scheduled general-election developments through November, including voter mobilization efforts and any shifts in local economic conditions, could widen separation among these outcomes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan