Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "Michael" exceeding $25 million in its fourth domestic weekend at 67.5% implied probability, driven by the Michael Jackson biopic's exceptional legs despite middling critical reception and a 38% Rotten Tomatoes score. After a record-shattering $97 million opening, it posted $54 million in weekend two and a resilient $37.9 million third frame—topping estimates amid competition—pushing domestic cume past $253 million and worldwide to $604 million. Strong midweek holds ($4.7 million Tuesday) and regains of PLF/IMAX screens signal sustained fan momentum, though new challengers like "Devil Wears Prada 2" and "Obsession" could pressure the hold into the 22-25 million range favored at 30%. Final tallies lock Sunday, with tracking underscoring the film's biopic-record trajectory.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui"Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office
"Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office
>25m 70%
22-25m 30%
19-22m 2.6%
<19m <1%
BARU
BARU
May 18, 2026
<19m
1%
19-22m
3%
22-25m
30%
>25m
70%
>25m 70%
22-25m 30%
19-22m 2.6%
<19m <1%
BARU
BARU
May 18, 2026
<19m
$1,124 Vol.
1%
19-22m
$1,566 Vol.
3%
22-25m
$1,301 Vol.
30%
>25m
$3,630 Vol.
70%
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 15 - May 17) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "Michael" exceeding $25 million in its fourth domestic weekend at 67.5% implied probability, driven by the Michael Jackson biopic's exceptional legs despite middling critical reception and a 38% Rotten Tomatoes score. After a record-shattering $97 million opening, it posted $54 million in weekend two and a resilient $37.9 million third frame—topping estimates amid competition—pushing domestic cume past $253 million and worldwide to $604 million. Strong midweek holds ($4.7 million Tuesday) and regains of PLF/IMAX screens signal sustained fan momentum, though new challengers like "Devil Wears Prada 2" and "Obsession" could pressure the hold into the 22-25 million range favored at 30%. Final tallies lock Sunday, with tracking underscoring the film's biopic-record trajectory.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 15 - May 17) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Pasar Dibuka: May 12, 2026, 6:33 PM ET
Volume
$7,622Tanggal Berakhir
May 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 12, 2026, 6:33 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 15 - May 17) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "Michael" exceeding $25 million in its fourth domestic weekend at 67.5% implied probability, driven by the Michael Jackson biopic's exceptional legs despite middling critical reception and a 38% Rotten Tomatoes score. After a record-shattering $97 million opening, it posted $54 million in weekend two and a resilient $37.9 million third frame—topping estimates amid competition—pushing domestic cume past $253 million and worldwide to $604 million. Strong midweek holds ($4.7 million Tuesday) and regains of PLF/IMAX screens signal sustained fan momentum, though new challengers like "Devil Wears Prada 2" and "Obsession" could pressure the hold into the 22-25 million range favored at 30%. Final tallies lock Sunday, with tracking underscoring the film's biopic-record trajectory.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 15 - May 17) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$7,622Tanggal Berakhir
May 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 12, 2026, 6:33 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "Michael" exceeding $25 million in its fourth domestic weekend at 67.5% implied probability, driven by the Michael Jackson biopic's exceptional legs despite middling critical reception and a 38% Rotten Tomatoes score. After a record-shattering $97 million opening, it posted $54 million in weekend two and a resilient $37.9 million third frame—topping estimates amid competition—pushing domestic cume past $253 million and worldwide to $604 million. Strong midweek holds ($4.7 million Tuesday) and regains of PLF/IMAX screens signal sustained fan momentum, though new challengers like "Devil Wears Prada 2" and "Obsession" could pressure the hold into the 22-25 million range favored at 30%. Final tallies lock Sunday, with tracking underscoring the film's biopic-record trajectory.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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