Recent preliminary results from New Zealand’s November 7 general election show turnout at 74.6 percent of enrolled voters, the second-lowest on record after 2011 and below the 78.2 percent recorded in 2023. Traders have priced this outcome heavily because enrolment slipped to 93.7 percent amid an earlier cutoff, advance voting rose but failed to offset the decline, and heavy election-day rain coincided with widespread voter disengagement from both major parties. Special votes still to be finalized by November 27 could shift the exact figure slightly, yet current data and comparable historical patterns reinforce the strong probability that final turnout will remain under 76 percent.