Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody at Brooklyn’s Metropolitan Detention Center since his capture by American forces during strikes in Caracas on January 3, 2026. He and his wife face longstanding narcotics trafficking, weapons, and narcoterrorism charges in the Southern District of New York, where both entered not-guilty pleas and were placed under special administrative measures with no bail granted. Proceedings have been adjourned into spring 2026 amid challenges to the extraterritorial arrest that could reach the Supreme Court. Venezuela’s interim government has released hundreds of political prisoners and some American detainees as a diplomatic gesture, while continuing to demand Maduro’s immediate return, yet U.S. authorities have shown no indication of releasing him before trial or plea resolution. Traders are pricing the low probability of release by year-end around legal timelines, potential plea talks, and absence of any health or political developments that would alter custody status.