Darializa Avila Chevalier defeated five-term incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 23, 2026, NY-13 Democratic primary by a narrow margin of roughly 3.5 points, with unofficial results showing 49.4% to 45.9%. Traders have priced the sub-5% outcome at 96% because the vote tally aligned closely with pre-election polling that showed a competitive race divided by age, education, and income cohorts, with Chevalier drawing strong support from younger and college-educated voters while Espaillat held advantages among lower-income and Hispanic blocs. Endorsements from New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and the Democratic Socialists of America helped mobilize progressive turnout in Manhattan portions of the district. Certified results or a successful recount remain the only realistic paths that could alter the final margin enough to shift probabilities away from the current consensus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAvila Chevalier <5% 96.4%
Avila Chevalier 10%+ 3.5%
Avila Chevalier 5–10% 3.0%
Other <1%
$89,667 Vol.
$89,667 Vol.
Jun 23, 2026
Avila Chevalier 10%+
4%
Avila Chevalier 5–10%
3%
Avila Chevalier <5%
96%
Other
<1%
Avila Chevalier <5% 96.4%
Avila Chevalier 10%+ 3.5%
Avila Chevalier 5–10% 3.0%
Other <1%
$89,667 Vol.
$89,667 Vol.
Jun 23, 2026
Avila Chevalier 10%+
$5,976 Vol.
4%
Avila Chevalier 5–10%
$7,521 Vol.
3%
Avila Chevalier <5%
$21,705 Vol.
96%
Other
$2,194 Vol.
<1%
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Darializa Avila Chevalier defeated five-term incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 23, 2026, NY-13 Democratic primary by a narrow margin of roughly 3.5 points, with unofficial results showing 49.4% to 45.9%. Traders have priced the sub-5% outcome at 96% because the vote tally aligned closely with pre-election polling that showed a competitive race divided by age, education, and income cohorts, with Chevalier drawing strong support from younger and college-educated voters while Espaillat held advantages among lower-income and Hispanic blocs. Endorsements from New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and the Democratic Socialists of America helped mobilize progressive turnout in Manhattan portions of the district. Certified results or a successful recount remain the only realistic paths that could alter the final margin enough to shift probabilities away from the current consensus.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 18, 2026, 10:08 PM ET
Volume
$89,667Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 23, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 18, 2026, 10:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Darializa Avila Chevalier defeated five-term incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 23, 2026, NY-13 Democratic primary by a narrow margin of roughly 3.5 points, with unofficial results showing 49.4% to 45.9%. Traders have priced the sub-5% outcome at 96% because the vote tally aligned closely with pre-election polling that showed a competitive race divided by age, education, and income cohorts, with Chevalier drawing strong support from younger and college-educated voters while Espaillat held advantages among lower-income and Hispanic blocs. Endorsements from New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and the Democratic Socialists of America helped mobilize progressive turnout in Manhattan portions of the district. Certified results or a successful recount remain the only realistic paths that could alter the final margin enough to shift probabilities away from the current consensus.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$89,667Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 23, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 18, 2026, 10:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Darializa Avila Chevalier defeated five-term incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 23, 2026, NY-13 Democratic primary by a narrow margin of roughly 3.5 points, with unofficial results showing 49.4% to 45.9%. Traders have priced the sub-5% outcome at 96% because the vote tally aligned closely with pre-election polling that showed a competitive race divided by age, education, and income cohorts, with Chevalier drawing strong support from younger and college-educated voters while Espaillat held advantages among lower-income and Hispanic blocs. Endorsements from New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and the Democratic Socialists of America helped mobilize progressive turnout in Manhattan portions of the district. Certified results or a successful recount remain the only realistic paths that could alter the final margin enough to shift probabilities away from the current consensus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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