The unexpectedly competitive South Carolina U.S. Senate race between appointed Republican incumbent Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews is the main factor anchoring trader views on general election turnout near the middle ranges. Recent polls from Trafalgar Group and InsiderAdvantage show the candidates separated by just 1-3 points, with roughly 8-9% undecided and younger voters breaking heavily for Andrews while older cohorts favor Graham. This dynamic, alongside record primary participation driven by redistricting fights and Democratic enthusiasm gains, supports expectations for solid but not exceptional participation among the state's roughly 3.4 million registered voters. Flat registration numbers despite population growth, the Oct. 4 deadline, and the Oct. 11 debate add modest uncertainty, while historical midterm patterns and older-voter skew keep extreme highs or lows less likely in the wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing.