Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—27% for $7,000-$7,500 and 26.5% for $7,500-$8,000 S&P 500 year-end closes—reflect balanced sentiment after April CPI surged 3.8% year-over-year on May 12, the hottest since 2023, delaying Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations despite steady 4.3% unemployment. The index, near 7,444 after recent record highs driven by 21% projected 2026 earnings growth and AI-fueled tech gains, now prices modest pullback risks from sticky inflation against earnings momentum. Key swing factors include upcoming May CPI (June 10 release) and June FOMC, where brokerages diverge on mid-year cuts, with lower bins gaining on persistent policy caution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWhat will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
$7,000-$7,500 29%
$7,500-$8,000 17%
$6,500-$7,000 16%
>$8,000 15%
$25,377 Vol.
$25,377 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
14%
$6,000-$6,500
15%
$6,500-$7,000
16%
$7,000-$7,500
25%
$7,500-$8,000
26%
>$8,000
21%
$7,000-$7,500 29%
$7,500-$8,000 17%
$6,500-$7,000 16%
>$8,000 15%
$25,377 Vol.
$25,377 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
$15,544 Vol.
14%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,479 Vol.
15%
$6,500-$7,000
$2,389 Vol.
16%
$7,000-$7,500
$1,114 Vol.
25%
$7,500-$8,000
$2,554 Vol.
26%
>$8,000
$2,298 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—27% for $7,000-$7,500 and 26.5% for $7,500-$8,000 S&P 500 year-end closes—reflect balanced sentiment after April CPI surged 3.8% year-over-year on May 12, the hottest since 2023, delaying Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations despite steady 4.3% unemployment. The index, near 7,444 after recent record highs driven by 21% projected 2026 earnings growth and AI-fueled tech gains, now prices modest pullback risks from sticky inflation against earnings momentum. Key swing factors include upcoming May CPI (June 10 release) and June FOMC, where brokerages diverge on mid-year cuts, with lower bins gaining on persistent policy caution.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volume
$25,377Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—27% for $7,000-$7,500 and 26.5% for $7,500-$8,000 S&P 500 year-end closes—reflect balanced sentiment after April CPI surged 3.8% year-over-year on May 12, the hottest since 2023, delaying Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations despite steady 4.3% unemployment. The index, near 7,444 after recent record highs driven by 21% projected 2026 earnings growth and AI-fueled tech gains, now prices modest pullback risks from sticky inflation against earnings momentum. Key swing factors include upcoming May CPI (June 10 release) and June FOMC, where brokerages diverge on mid-year cuts, with lower bins gaining on persistent policy caution.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$25,377Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities—27% for $7,000-$7,500 and 26.5% for $7,500-$8,000 S&P 500 year-end closes—reflect balanced sentiment after April CPI surged 3.8% year-over-year on May 12, the hottest since 2023, delaying Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations despite steady 4.3% unemployment. The index, near 7,444 after recent record highs driven by 21% projected 2026 earnings growth and AI-fueled tech gains, now prices modest pullback risks from sticky inflation against earnings momentum. Key swing factors include upcoming May CPI (June 10 release) and June FOMC, where brokerages diverge on mid-year cuts, with lower bins gaining on persistent policy caution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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