The Swiss National Bank’s December 10 policy decision carries an 84.7% market-implied probability of no change from the current 0% rate, with a 25-basis-point hike priced at 15.2%. October CPI accelerated to 1.5% year-over-year—the highest since late 2023—driven by a 40% surge in petroleum products amid elevated oil prices, exceeding the SNB’s September conditional forecast and prompting Chairman Martin Schlegel to state the bank would adjust policy if price stability were threatened. Core inflation held steady at 0.5%, however, keeping the reading inside the 0–2% target band and limiting the shift in trader positioning. With the SNB’s prior assessments assuming an unchanged path and no further high-frequency data releases before the meeting, the modest repricing reflects contained second-round risks rather than a broad reappraisal of the rate outlook.