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icon for Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner
Dunia·Tonga

Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner

icon for Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner
Dunia·Tonga

Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner

Lei Paasi 33%

Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi 32%

Alvin Lafu Sika 26%

Mounu Uaisele 25%

Polymarket
BARU

Lei Paasi 33%

Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi 32%

Alvin Lafu Sika 26%

Mounu Uaisele 25%

Polymarket
BARU

Lei Paasi

$29 Vol.

33%

Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi

$29 Vol.

32%

Alvin Lafu Sika

$29 Vol.

26%

Mounu Uaisele

$29 Vol.

25%

Sione Harvard Tupouniua

$29 Vol.

25%

'Olioni Manoa

$29 Vol.

22%

Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki

$29 Vol.

21%

Samiuela Vea

$29 Vol.

20%

'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila

$29 Vol.

20%

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).The Tongatapu 2 by-election, set for 8 October 2026, features nine registered candidates after the Supreme Court upheld bribery and campaign spending convictions against the 2025 winner Semisi Sika, vacating the seat and barring him from contesting for five years. Trader prices reflect a fragmented field, with Sione Harvard Tupouniua, ‘Olioni Manoa, ‘Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila, and Malakai Koloamatangi clustered near the top amid low differentiation in early positioning. Recent withdrawals by three prospective entrants to consolidate behind Koloamatangi, combined with three women candidates and the absence of the prior runner-up, have kept implied probabilities tightly bunched. No public polling or major endorsements have yet emerged to separate contenders ahead of the vote, leaving outcomes dependent on local turnout patterns and last-minute alliances in the single-member constituency.

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.

If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Volume
$262
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 8, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 9, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).The Tongatapu 2 by-election, set for 8 October 2026, features nine registered candidates after the Supreme Court upheld bribery and campaign spending convictions against the 2025 winner Semisi Sika, vacating the seat and barring him from contesting for five years. Trader prices reflect a fragmented field, with Sione Harvard Tupouniua, ‘Olioni Manoa, ‘Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila, and Malakai Koloamatangi clustered near the top amid low differentiation in early positioning. Recent withdrawals by three prospective entrants to consolidate behind Koloamatangi, combined with three women candidates and the absence of the prior runner-up, have kept implied probabilities tightly bunched. No public polling or major endorsements have yet emerged to separate contenders ahead of the vote, leaving outcomes dependent on local turnout patterns and last-minute alliances in the single-member constituency.

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.

If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Volume
$262
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 8, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Sep 9, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 9 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Lei Paasi" di 33%, diikuti oleh "Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi" di 32%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 33¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 33% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Sep 9, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner," jelajahi 9 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner" adalah "Lei Paasi" di 33%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 33% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi" di 32%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Tongatapu 2 By-Election Winner" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.