The trader consensus against U.S. recognition of María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by December 31 stems from the Trump administration's explicit preference for working with Delcy Rodríguez as interim head of state following Nicolás Maduro's January 2026 removal. Officials have cited concerns over Machado's domestic support and institutional backing, opting instead for continuity in oil sector management and a controlled transition that includes reopening diplomatic channels. Although Machado received the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize and held direct White House meetings, no formal diplomatic acknowledgment or policy shift has occurred, with U.S. statements prioritizing new elections over unilateral leadership endorsement. This stance has kept implied probabilities for recognition low amid ongoing focus on pragmatic engagement rather than opposition installation.
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Dec 31, 2026
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The trader consensus against U.S. recognition of María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by December 31 stems from the Trump administration's explicit preference for working with Delcy Rodríguez as interim head of state following Nicolás Maduro's January 2026 removal. Officials have cited concerns over Machado's domestic support and institutional backing, opting instead for continuity in oil sector management and a controlled transition that includes reopening diplomatic channels. Although Machado received the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize and held direct White House meetings, no formal diplomatic acknowledgment or policy shift has occurred, with U.S. statements prioritizing new elections over unilateral leadership endorsement. This stance has kept implied probabilities for recognition low amid ongoing focus on pragmatic engagement rather than opposition installation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$3,882Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The trader consensus against U.S. recognition of María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by December 31 stems from the Trump administration's explicit preference for working with Delcy Rodríguez as interim head of state following Nicolás Maduro's January 2026 removal. Officials have cited concerns over Machado's domestic support and institutional backing, opting instead for continuity in oil sector management and a controlled transition that includes reopening diplomatic channels. Although Machado received the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize and held direct White House meetings, no formal diplomatic acknowledgment or policy shift has occurred, with U.S. statements prioritizing new elections over unilateral leadership endorsement. This stance has kept implied probabilities for recognition low amid ongoing focus on pragmatic engagement rather than opposition installation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$3,882Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The trader consensus against U.S. recognition of María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader by December 31 stems from the Trump administration's explicit preference for working with Delcy Rodríguez as interim head of state following Nicolás Maduro's January 2026 removal. Officials have cited concerns over Machado's domestic support and institutional backing, opting instead for continuity in oil sector management and a controlled transition that includes reopening diplomatic channels. Although Machado received the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize and held direct White House meetings, no formal diplomatic acknowledgment or policy shift has occurred, with U.S. statements prioritizing new elections over unilateral leadership endorsement. This stance has kept implied probabilities for recognition low amid ongoing focus on pragmatic engagement rather than opposition installation.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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