Anthropic’s market-implied 67% probability for holding the top AI model by end of June reflects trader consensus around its recent Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos releases, which have posted leading scores on reasoning and cybersecurity benchmarks ahead of competitors. These large language models demonstrate stronger adaptive reasoning and safety-aligned capabilities than OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series or Google’s Gemini 3.1 variants, according to current arena and GPQA evaluations. Google’s 22.5% odds capture expectations for upcoming Gemini updates, while OpenAI’s lower 5.5% share signals that its latest instant and pro iterations have not yet displaced Anthropic’s edge. With resolution tied to end-of-month leaderboard standings, any new capability demonstrations or benchmark shifts in the next six weeks could still alter positioning before traders lock in final sentiment.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 67%
Google 22%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,455,219 Vol.
$1,455,219 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
67%
22%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Microsoft
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Moonshot
1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 67%
Google 22%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,455,219 Vol.
$1,455,219 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$29,972 Vol.
67%
$18,324 Vol.
22%
OpenAI
$49,298 Vol.
6%
xAI
$14,928 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$201,099 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$136,475 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$11,847 Vol.
1%
Meta
$8,119 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$412,860 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$203,328 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$270,668 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$59,313 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$17,620 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$12,783 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$8,585 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s market-implied 67% probability for holding the top AI model by end of June reflects trader consensus around its recent Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos releases, which have posted leading scores on reasoning and cybersecurity benchmarks ahead of competitors. These large language models demonstrate stronger adaptive reasoning and safety-aligned capabilities than OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series or Google’s Gemini 3.1 variants, according to current arena and GPQA evaluations. Google’s 22.5% odds capture expectations for upcoming Gemini updates, while OpenAI’s lower 5.5% share signals that its latest instant and pro iterations have not yet displaced Anthropic’s edge. With resolution tied to end-of-month leaderboard standings, any new capability demonstrations or benchmark shifts in the next six weeks could still alter positioning before traders lock in final sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Pasar Dibuka: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$1,455,219Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s market-implied 67% probability for holding the top AI model by end of June reflects trader consensus around its recent Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos releases, which have posted leading scores on reasoning and cybersecurity benchmarks ahead of competitors. These large language models demonstrate stronger adaptive reasoning and safety-aligned capabilities than OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series or Google’s Gemini 3.1 variants, according to current arena and GPQA evaluations. Google’s 22.5% odds capture expectations for upcoming Gemini updates, while OpenAI’s lower 5.5% share signals that its latest instant and pro iterations have not yet displaced Anthropic’s edge. With resolution tied to end-of-month leaderboard standings, any new capability demonstrations or benchmark shifts in the next six weeks could still alter positioning before traders lock in final sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$1,455,219Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s market-implied 67% probability for holding the top AI model by end of June reflects trader consensus around its recent Claude Opus 4.7 and Mythos releases, which have posted leading scores on reasoning and cybersecurity benchmarks ahead of competitors. These large language models demonstrate stronger adaptive reasoning and safety-aligned capabilities than OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series or Google’s Gemini 3.1 variants, according to current arena and GPQA evaluations. Google’s 22.5% odds capture expectations for upcoming Gemini updates, while OpenAI’s lower 5.5% share signals that its latest instant and pro iterations have not yet displaced Anthropic’s edge. With resolution tied to end-of-month leaderboard standings, any new capability demonstrations or benchmark shifts in the next six weeks could still alter positioning before traders lock in final sentiment.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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