FIFA has confirmed Iran's participation in the 2026 World Cup group stage despite geopolitical tensions, visa denials for federation officials, and a base-camp shift to Tijuana, Mexico, allowing the squad to enter the U.S. only on match days. The governing body has rejected any substitution plan, citing established qualification rules and the absence of an Iranian withdrawal, while Italian officials publicly dismissed a proposed replacement as inappropriate and unearned. Recent developments, including the team's arrival in Mexico and approved logistics adjustments, reinforce trader consensus around the dominant "No Replacement" outcome. A last-minute Iranian pullout or unforeseen FIFA exclusion tied to security concerns remain the only realistic paths that could alter the current implied probability.