Trader consensus assigns the highest probability to Mahmoud Khalil amid his ongoing immigration proceedings following the 2025 ICE detention tied to campus activism, while John Brennan faces active DOJ grand jury scrutiny over prior congressional testimony on the Russia investigation. Broader enforcement priorities under the current administration, including expanded federal arrests and probes into former officials such as Fauci and Comey, contribute to positioning. Resolution hinges on whether criminal charges or new detentions materialize before the end of 2026, with scheduled court actions and prosecutorial decisions serving as key catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWho will be arrested before 2027?
Who will be arrested before 2027?
$374,881 Vol.
Anthony Fauci
11%
John Brennan
29%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
22%
Adam Schiff
3%
Barack Obama
1%
James Comey
6%
Mahmoud Khalil
29%
James Clapper
13%
Letitia James
14%
Hillary Clinton
3%
Bill Clinton
2%
Loretta Lynch
10%
Susan Rice
9%
Candace Owens
7%
Gavin Newsom
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
6%
John Kerry
3%
Pam Bondi
4%
Tom Homan
12%
Kash Patel
3%
Brandon Johnson
12%
Lisa Cook
11%
Lee Jun-seok
11%
Joe Biden
2%
$374,881 Vol.
Anthony Fauci
$143,829 Vol.
11%
John Brennan
$18,171 Vol.
29%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
$21,739 Vol.
22%
Adam Schiff
$16,402 Vol.
3%
Barack Obama
$28,905 Vol.
1%
James Comey
$9,602 Vol.
6%
Mahmoud Khalil
$1,308 Vol.
29%
James Clapper
$6,726 Vol.
13%
Letitia James
$2,848 Vol.
14%
Hillary Clinton
$25,009 Vol.
3%
Bill Clinton
$2,494 Vol.
2%
Loretta Lynch
$2,376 Vol.
10%
Susan Rice
$304 Vol.
9%
Candace Owens
$263 Vol.
7%
Gavin Newsom
$37,596 Vol.
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$1,789 Vol.
6%
John Kerry
$346 Vol.
3%
Pam Bondi
$1,998 Vol.
4%
Tom Homan
$39,684 Vol.
12%
Kash Patel
$530 Vol.
3%
Brandon Johnson
$3,191 Vol.
12%
Lisa Cook
$3,319 Vol.
11%
Lee Jun-seok
$794 Vol.
11%
Joe Biden
$5,658 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns the highest probability to Mahmoud Khalil amid his ongoing immigration proceedings following the 2025 ICE detention tied to campus activism, while John Brennan faces active DOJ grand jury scrutiny over prior congressional testimony on the Russia investigation. Broader enforcement priorities under the current administration, including expanded federal arrests and probes into former officials such as Fauci and Comey, contribute to positioning. Resolution hinges on whether criminal charges or new detentions materialize before the end of 2026, with scheduled court actions and prosecutorial decisions serving as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volume
$374,881Pasar Dibuka
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus assigns the highest probability to Mahmoud Khalil amid his ongoing immigration proceedings following the 2025 ICE detention tied to campus activism, while John Brennan faces active DOJ grand jury scrutiny over prior congressional testimony on the Russia investigation. Broader enforcement priorities under the current administration, including expanded federal arrests and probes into former officials such as Fauci and Comey, contribute to positioning. Resolution hinges on whether criminal charges or new detentions materialize before the end of 2026, with scheduled court actions and prosecutorial decisions serving as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$374,881Pasar Dibuka
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns the highest probability to Mahmoud Khalil amid his ongoing immigration proceedings following the 2025 ICE detention tied to campus activism, while John Brennan faces active DOJ grand jury scrutiny over prior congressional testimony on the Russia investigation. Broader enforcement priorities under the current administration, including expanded federal arrests and probes into former officials such as Fauci and Comey, contribute to positioning. Resolution hinges on whether criminal charges or new detentions materialize before the end of 2026, with scheduled court actions and prosecutorial decisions serving as key catalysts.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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