**Trader consensus that James Comey will not be sentenced to prison in 2026 rests on the procedural timelines of his active federal cases.** The Virginia indictments for alleged false statements to Congress were dismissed in late 2025 over the unlawful appointment of the interim U.S. attorney; a September 2026 Fourth Circuit hearing left those dismissals likely intact, with statute-of-limitations barriers also cited by the district court. The separate North Carolina case, charging threats against the president based on a 2025 Instagram post of seashells arranged as “8647,” was indicted in April 2026 but has seen multiple continuances. Arraignment is now set for January 2027 and trial for February 2027 after the defense sought additional time to litigate dismissal motions alleging selective or vindictive prosecution. No other charges or proceedings appear positioned to reach sentencing before year-end. Realistic paths that could still shift the outcome remain narrow: an unexpectedly swift denial of all pending motions followed by an accelerated plea or trial in the North Carolina matter, successful revival and rapid resolution of the Virginia cases on appeal, or the emergence of entirely new charges with expedited handling. Each faces significant legal and scheduling hurdles given the current posture.