Carlos Alcaraz’s ongoing right wrist injury, sustained during the April 2026 Barcelona Open, remains the dominant factor shaping the 61.5% implied probability he will compete at the 2026 US Open. The defending champion has not played a competitive match since then, withdrawing from both the Canadian Open and Cincinnati Masters to prioritize rehabilitation ahead of the hard-court major that begins August 30. His continued presence on the official entry list and recent positive training footage support expectations of a return, yet the four-month layoff raises concerns over match fitness in best-of-five encounters. Advisors have publicly cautioned against rushing back without tune-up events such as Winston-Salem, noting the physical demands of Grand Slam tennis on an untested wrist. These developments reflect trader caution around full participation despite the defending-champion incentive.