Traders assign an 89.5% probability that Elon Musk will not formally rejoin the Trump administration in 2026 primarily because he departed his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) role in May 2025 after a public feud over federal spending and has repeatedly stated he would not repeat the experience, preferring to prioritize his companies including Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI. DOGE’s mandate ended in July 2026 following workforce reductions and disputed savings claims. Recent reconciliation—marked by Musk’s October 2026 National Medal of Science award, White House appearances, and co-leadership of the Pentagon’s Project Meridian AI-related warfare study—reflects restored ties and informal advisory input on technology policy, yet these developments remain outside any official reappointment. Key catalysts ahead include midterm election support and potential AI or defense collaborations that could test but have not yet altered the strong consensus against a return.