Current forecast tracks from the Japan Meteorological Agency and Joint Typhoon Warning Center show Typhoon Surigae recurving northeastward and passing south of Honshu while rapidly weakening under increasing wind shear and interaction with a mid-latitude trough. The system is expected to drop below typhoon intensity and transition into an extratropical low east of the Izu Islands by early October, keeping its center well offshore. This steering pattern and intensity decline, consistent across model guidance, underpin the 97.5% market-implied odds against landfall. A northward track shift of roughly 150 km or slower weakening could still bring the center near the coast, though recent model runs show limited spread supporting such outcomes.