U.S. immigration law imposes a high evidentiary bar for denaturalization, requiring the Department of Justice to prove material fraud or willful misrepresentation during the naturalization process in federal court. Zohran Mamdani, who became a citizen in 2018 after lawful permanent residency, has faced congressional inquiries from some Republican lawmakers in late 2025 over alleged nondisclosure of political affiliations, yet no formal proceedings or court filings have advanced. As New York City mayor since January 2026, he continues to hold office without any confirmed revocation actions. Traders assign a 99.1 percent probability to retention through 2026 because successful denaturalization remains rare and time-consuming. Late-breaking developments, such as new primary-source evidence triggering DOJ litigation that concludes before the end of 2026, could still shift the outcome.