Recent polling on the generic congressional ballot shows Democrats holding a consistent mid-single-digit national lead, reflecting the typical midterm penalty for the president's party amid voter concerns over affordability, inflation, and economic conditions. Redistricting changes in Republican-led states like Texas have aimed to bolster GOP seat prospects, with limited Democratic counters in places like California, but these adjustments influence district outcomes more than the aggregate popular vote. Forecasters note historical patterns where the opposition party gains ground in the House popular vote during a president's second midterm, while low presidential approval ratings amplify this dynamic. Trader consensus on margins clustered around an 8-12 point Democratic edge aligns with current survey averages and structural headwinds for Republicans, though "Other" captures uncertainty from potential late shifts in turnout, issue salience, or economic data before November.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMidterms 2026: margine di vittoria del voto popolare della Camera
Midterms 2026: margine di vittoria del voto popolare della Camera
Democratici 8-10% 28%
Democratici 10-12% 24%
Democratici 6-8% 18%
Democratici 4-6% 12%
$122,112 Vol.
$122,112 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratici 16%+
1%
Democratici 14-16%
2%
Democratici 12-14%
7%
Democratici 10-12%
24%
Democratici 8-10%
28%
Democratici 6-8%
18%
Democratici 4-6%
12%
Democratici 2-4%
6%
Democratici 0-2%
2%
Repubblicani 0-2%
4%
Repubblicani 2-4%
3%
Repubblicani 4-6%
1%
Repubblicani 6%+
2%
Democratici 8-10% 28%
Democratici 10-12% 24%
Democratici 6-8% 18%
Democratici 4-6% 12%
$122,112 Vol.
$122,112 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratici 16%+
$3,226 Vol.
1%
Democratici 14-16%
$2,535 Vol.
2%
Democratici 12-14%
$4,175 Vol.
7%
Democratici 10-12%
$8,183 Vol.
24%
Democratici 8-10%
$13,955 Vol.
28%
Democratici 6-8%
$14,020 Vol.
18%
Democratici 4-6%
$6,419 Vol.
12%
Democratici 2-4%
$14,469 Vol.
6%
Democratici 0-2%
$13,548 Vol.
2%
Repubblicani 0-2%
$5,211 Vol.
4%
Repubblicani 2-4%
$29,599 Vol.
3%
Repubblicani 4-6%
$2,946 Vol.
1%
Repubblicani 6%+
$3,825 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent polling on the generic congressional ballot shows Democrats holding a consistent mid-single-digit national lead, reflecting the typical midterm penalty for the president's party amid voter concerns over affordability, inflation, and economic conditions. Redistricting changes in Republican-led states like Texas have aimed to bolster GOP seat prospects, with limited Democratic counters in places like California, but these adjustments influence district outcomes more than the aggregate popular vote. Forecasters note historical patterns where the opposition party gains ground in the House popular vote during a president's second midterm, while low presidential approval ratings amplify this dynamic. Trader consensus on margins clustered around an 8-12 point Democratic edge aligns with current survey averages and structural headwinds for Republicans, though "Other" captures uncertainty from potential late shifts in turnout, issue salience, or economic data before November.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Mercato aperto: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$122,112Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent polling on the generic congressional ballot shows Democrats holding a consistent mid-single-digit national lead, reflecting the typical midterm penalty for the president's party amid voter concerns over affordability, inflation, and economic conditions. Redistricting changes in Republican-led states like Texas have aimed to bolster GOP seat prospects, with limited Democratic counters in places like California, but these adjustments influence district outcomes more than the aggregate popular vote. Forecasters note historical patterns where the opposition party gains ground in the House popular vote during a president's second midterm, while low presidential approval ratings amplify this dynamic. Trader consensus on margins clustered around an 8-12 point Democratic edge aligns with current survey averages and structural headwinds for Republicans, though "Other" captures uncertainty from potential late shifts in turnout, issue salience, or economic data before November.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$122,112Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling on the generic congressional ballot shows Democrats holding a consistent mid-single-digit national lead, reflecting the typical midterm penalty for the president's party amid voter concerns over affordability, inflation, and economic conditions. Redistricting changes in Republican-led states like Texas have aimed to bolster GOP seat prospects, with limited Democratic counters in places like California, but these adjustments influence district outcomes more than the aggregate popular vote. Forecasters note historical patterns where the opposition party gains ground in the House popular vote during a president's second midterm, while low presidential approval ratings amplify this dynamic. Trader consensus on margins clustered around an 8-12 point Democratic edge aligns with current survey averages and structural headwinds for Republicans, though "Other" captures uncertainty from potential late shifts in turnout, issue salience, or economic data before November.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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