Several Republican-held Senate seats feature closely matched candidates and polling that has kept margins narrow in recent surveys, driving trader consensus toward Texas and Iowa as the likeliest sites of the smallest victory margin on November 3, 2026. In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico in a race where multiple August polls showed gaps of 1–4 points. Iowa’s open seat pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek with similar tightness. Ohio’s special election, Alaska’s matchup of Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola, and Maine’s contest involving Susan Collins add further uncertainty through strong challengers and shifting state fundamentals. Recent fundraising edges and primary outcomes have sustained this cluster of competitive dynamics without yet producing clear separation.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTexas 25%
Iowa 22.4%
Maine 15%
Ohio (Special) 13.9%
$28,210 Vol.
$28,210 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Texas
25%
Iowa
22%
Maine
15%
Ohio (Special)
14%
Alaska
12%
Michigan
6%
Nebraska
5%
New Mexico
3%
Florida (Special)
3%
Virginia
2%
North Carolina
2%
New Hampshire
1%
Georgia
1%
Colorado
1%
Minnesota
1%
Montana
<1%
Texas 25%
Iowa 22.4%
Maine 15%
Ohio (Special) 13.9%
$28,210 Vol.
$28,210 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Texas
$1,058 Vol.
25%
Iowa
$2,677 Vol.
22%
Maine
$1,285 Vol.
15%
Ohio (Special)
$5,040 Vol.
14%
Alaska
$5,272 Vol.
12%
Michigan
$2,490 Vol.
6%
Nebraska
$275 Vol.
5%
New Mexico
$160 Vol.
3%
Florida (Special)
$253 Vol.
3%
Virginia
$5,073 Vol.
2%
North Carolina
$621 Vol.
2%
New Hampshire
$485 Vol.
1%
Georgia
$752 Vol.
1%
Colorado
$662 Vol.
1%
Minnesota
$1,489 Vol.
1%
Montana
$616 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several Republican-held Senate seats feature closely matched candidates and polling that has kept margins narrow in recent surveys, driving trader consensus toward Texas and Iowa as the likeliest sites of the smallest victory margin on November 3, 2026. In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico in a race where multiple August polls showed gaps of 1–4 points. Iowa’s open seat pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek with similar tightness. Ohio’s special election, Alaska’s matchup of Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola, and Maine’s contest involving Susan Collins add further uncertainty through strong challengers and shifting state fundamentals. Recent fundraising edges and primary outcomes have sustained this cluster of competitive dynamics without yet producing clear separation.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volume
$28,210Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several Republican-held Senate seats feature closely matched candidates and polling that has kept margins narrow in recent surveys, driving trader consensus toward Texas and Iowa as the likeliest sites of the smallest victory margin on November 3, 2026. In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico in a race where multiple August polls showed gaps of 1–4 points. Iowa’s open seat pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek with similar tightness. Ohio’s special election, Alaska’s matchup of Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola, and Maine’s contest involving Susan Collins add further uncertainty through strong challengers and shifting state fundamentals. Recent fundraising edges and primary outcomes have sustained this cluster of competitive dynamics without yet producing clear separation.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,210Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Several Republican-held Senate seats feature closely matched candidates and polling that has kept margins narrow in recent surveys, driving trader consensus toward Texas and Iowa as the likeliest sites of the smallest victory margin on November 3, 2026. In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico in a race where multiple August polls showed gaps of 1–4 points. Iowa’s open seat pits Republican Ashley Hinson against Democrat Josh Turek with similar tightness. Ohio’s special election, Alaska’s matchup of Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola, and Maine’s contest involving Susan Collins add further uncertainty through strong challengers and shifting state fundamentals. Recent fundraising edges and primary outcomes have sustained this cluster of competitive dynamics without yet producing clear separation.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
La Florida avrà la corsa al governatore più combattuta nel 2026?
24%
Sì
La corsa al Senato del Texas del 2026 sarà entro il 5%?
72%
Sì
Il Partito Democratico vincerà il voto popolare nelle elezioni di metà mandato della Camera dei Rappresentanti degli Stati Uniti del 2026 con un margine tra l'8% e il 10%?
27%
Sì
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