Oklahoma City’s league-best 64-18 regular-season record and dominant playoff sweeps have anchored trader consensus around their 58.5% implied probability, driven by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP-level play, elite switchable defense, and roster depth that has kept the Thunder healthy entering the Western Conference Finals. The San Antonio Spurs sit at 23.1% on the strength of their 62-20 mark and Victor Wembanyama’s two-way dominance, positioning them as the clearest threat in a potential rematch. Eastern Conference contenders like the New York Knicks at 14.2% benefit from playoff advancement and balanced scoring, while the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers hold single-digit shares reflecting deeper bracket challenges and less proven postseason pedigrees.