**António Guterres is completing his second five-year term as UN Secretary-General on schedule on December 31, 2026, with the formal succession process already underway and no verified developments indicating an early exit.** The UN General Assembly and Security Council launched the selection for his successor in November 2025, including candidate nominations, interactive dialogues in April–June 2026, a town hall in July, and non-binding Security Council straw polls on July 30 and August 21. Recent polling shows frontrunners such as Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett and Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan but no consensus candidate or veto-level opposition that would disrupt the timeline. Guterres continues official duties, including public statements and international engagements, without reported health, resignation, or removal pressures. The new Secretary-General is expected to take office on January 1, 2027, consistent with historical patterns of orderly transitions. Trader consensus reflected in the 57% “No” probability aligns with this scheduled completion of the term rather than an unscheduled departure before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAntónio Guterres out by December 31?
António Guterres out by December 31?
26% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 dic 2026
26% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**António Guterres is completing his second five-year term as UN Secretary-General on schedule on December 31, 2026, with the formal succession process already underway and no verified developments indicating an early exit.**
The UN General Assembly and Security Council launched the selection for his successor in November 2025, including candidate nominations, interactive dialogues in April–June 2026, a town hall in July, and non-binding Security Council straw polls on July 30 and August 21. Recent polling shows frontrunners such as Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett and Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan but no consensus candidate or veto-level opposition that would disrupt the timeline. Guterres continues official duties, including public statements and international engagements, without reported health, resignation, or removal pressures. The new Secretary-General is expected to take office on January 1, 2027, consistent with historical patterns of orderly transitions. Trader consensus reflected in the 57% “No” probability aligns with this scheduled completion of the term rather than an unscheduled departure before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 21, 2026, 2:17 PM ET
Volume
$2,313Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 21, 2026, 2:17 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**António Guterres is completing his second five-year term as UN Secretary-General on schedule on December 31, 2026, with the formal succession process already underway and no verified developments indicating an early exit.**
The UN General Assembly and Security Council launched the selection for his successor in November 2025, including candidate nominations, interactive dialogues in April–June 2026, a town hall in July, and non-binding Security Council straw polls on July 30 and August 21. Recent polling shows frontrunners such as Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett and Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan but no consensus candidate or veto-level opposition that would disrupt the timeline. Guterres continues official duties, including public statements and international engagements, without reported health, resignation, or removal pressures. The new Secretary-General is expected to take office on January 1, 2027, consistent with historical patterns of orderly transitions. Trader consensus reflected in the 57% “No” probability aligns with this scheduled completion of the term rather than an unscheduled departure before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,313Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 21, 2026, 2:17 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**António Guterres is completing his second five-year term as UN Secretary-General on schedule on December 31, 2026, with the formal succession process already underway and no verified developments indicating an early exit.** The UN General Assembly and Security Council launched the selection for his successor in November 2025, including candidate nominations, interactive dialogues in April–June 2026, a town hall in July, and non-binding Security Council straw polls on July 30 and August 21. Recent polling shows frontrunners such as Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett and Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan but no consensus candidate or veto-level opposition that would disrupt the timeline. Guterres continues official duties, including public statements and international engagements, without reported health, resignation, or removal pressures. The new Secretary-General is expected to take office on January 1, 2027, consistent with historical patterns of orderly transitions. Trader consensus reflected in the 57% “No” probability aligns with this scheduled completion of the term rather than an unscheduled departure before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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