Elon Musk’s erratic posting cadence on X, averaging roughly 25–35 original posts or replies per day in recent months but swinging sharply week to week, underpins the wide-open October 2026 market where no single bracket exceeds 26.5% implied probability. August settled in the 880–919 range while early September featured multiple low-volume 40–64 stretches alongside occasional 160–230 bursts, reflecting activity tied to Tesla updates, xAI commentary, and political or cultural topics rather than sustained peaks. Traders price the 1000+ outcome highest because major product announcements, platform developments, or external events can trigger reply-heavy spikes that push totals above 30 daily, whereas quieter periods keep volume nearer the 800–959 cluster. October’s calendar offers no obvious lock-in event yet, leaving resolution dependent on real-time business and news momentum.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato1000+ 27%
880-919 15%
920-959 13%
960-999 13%
$68,608 Vol.
$68,608 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
1%
620-639
5%
640-659
4%
660-679
1%
680-699
1%
700-719
2%
720-739
1%
740-759
3%
760-779
3%
780-799
6%
800-839
13%
840-879
12%
880-919
15%
920-959
13%
960-999
13%
1000+
27%
1000+ 27%
880-919 15%
920-959 13%
960-999 13%
$68,608 Vol.
$68,608 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
1%
620-639
5%
640-659
4%
660-679
1%
680-699
1%
700-719
2%
720-739
1%
740-759
3%
760-779
3%
780-799
6%
800-839
13%
840-879
12%
880-919
15%
920-959
13%
960-999
13%
1000+
27%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Aug 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Fonte di risoluzione
https://x.com/elonmuskRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Fonte di risoluzione
https://x.com/elonmuskRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s erratic posting cadence on X, averaging roughly 25–35 original posts or replies per day in recent months but swinging sharply week to week, underpins the wide-open October 2026 market where no single bracket exceeds 26.5% implied probability. August settled in the 880–919 range while early September featured multiple low-volume 40–64 stretches alongside occasional 160–230 bursts, reflecting activity tied to Tesla updates, xAI commentary, and political or cultural topics rather than sustained peaks. Traders price the 1000+ outcome highest because major product announcements, platform developments, or external events can trigger reply-heavy spikes that push totals above 30 daily, whereas quieter periods keep volume nearer the 800–959 cluster. October’s calendar offers no obvious lock-in event yet, leaving resolution dependent on real-time business and news momentum.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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