A Bolivian court issued an arrest warrant for former President Evo Morales on May 11 after declaring him in contempt for failing to appear at a human trafficking trial, escalating trader odds toward "Yes" to 41% amid Bolivia's deepening political crisis between Morales' MAS faction and President Luis Arce's government. However, "No" holds at 59% as trader consensus reflects Morales' entrenched position in the Chapare coca region—his political stronghold guarded by militant supporters who have clashed with police and vowed national insurgency. Historical evasion of prior warrants, logistical barriers to a raid without sparking broader unrest, and the May 31 deadline temper expectations for swift execution, prioritizing political stability risks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$11,886 Vol.
$11,886 Vol.
31 mag 2026
$11,886 Vol.
$11,886 Vol.
31 mag 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A Bolivian court issued an arrest warrant for former President Evo Morales on May 11 after declaring him in contempt for failing to appear at a human trafficking trial, escalating trader odds toward "Yes" to 41% amid Bolivia's deepening political crisis between Morales' MAS faction and President Luis Arce's government. However, "No" holds at 59% as trader consensus reflects Morales' entrenched position in the Chapare coca region—his political stronghold guarded by militant supporters who have clashed with police and vowed national insurgency. Historical evasion of prior warrants, logistical barriers to a raid without sparking broader unrest, and the May 31 deadline temper expectations for swift execution, prioritizing political stability risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$11,886Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A Bolivian court issued an arrest warrant for former President Evo Morales on May 11 after declaring him in contempt for failing to appear at a human trafficking trial, escalating trader odds toward "Yes" to 41% amid Bolivia's deepening political crisis between Morales' MAS faction and President Luis Arce's government. However, "No" holds at 59% as trader consensus reflects Morales' entrenched position in the Chapare coca region—his political stronghold guarded by militant supporters who have clashed with police and vowed national insurgency. Historical evasion of prior warrants, logistical barriers to a raid without sparking broader unrest, and the May 31 deadline temper expectations for swift execution, prioritizing political stability risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$11,886Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A Bolivian court issued an arrest warrant for former President Evo Morales on May 11 after declaring him in contempt for failing to appear at a human trafficking trial, escalating trader odds toward "Yes" to 41% amid Bolivia's deepening political crisis between Morales' MAS faction and President Luis Arce's government. However, "No" holds at 59% as trader consensus reflects Morales' entrenched position in the Chapare coca region—his political stronghold guarded by militant supporters who have clashed with police and vowed national insurgency. Historical evasion of prior warrants, logistical barriers to a raid without sparking broader unrest, and the May 31 deadline temper expectations for swift execution, prioritizing political stability risks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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